Second Quarter Performance Fuels Optimism for Brazil’s GDP Growth

The economy will expand 2.56% this year, up from the prior estimate of 2.31%, according to a weekly survey from the Brazilian central bank published on Monday

Shoppers in the Ipanema neighborhood of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, on Thursday, March 2, 2023. Photographer: Dado Galdieri/Bloomberg
By Andrew Rosati
September 04, 2023 | 08:15 AM

Bloomberg — Brazil analysts raised their 2023 growth forecasts after gross domestic product expanded by three times more than expected during the second quarter.

The economy will expand 2.56% this year, up from the prior estimate of 2.31%, according to a weekly survey from the Brazilian central bank published on Monday. In 2024, GDP will gain 1.32%, a slight decline from last week.

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Strong services and a robust labor market helped Brazil post a 0.9% rise in GDP in the April-June period. It followed another better-than-expected quarter at the start of the year when a bumper harvest drove expansion. Major banks like Bank of America Corp are now betting on growth at or near 3% in 2023 — more than triple the rate most analysts were calling for in January.

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The out-performance has lifted President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva’s popularity with both his supporters and critics. The approval rating of the left-wing leader, who campaigned on pledges to bring back prosperity, hit 60% in August, up 9 percentage points from April, according to pollster Quaest.

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--With assistance from Giovanna Serafim.

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