Bloomberg — Brazil’s presidential race is still tightening according to a new opinion poll that takes into account voters most likely to show up on election day.
The Quaest poll published Wednesday confirmed a trend seen in other surveys this week that showed President Jair Bolsonaro’s overall momentum fading, but it also gauged the possible impact of abstention rates on Sunday’s runoff vote.
Quaest’s “likely voter” scenario has leftist former President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva getting 52.1% of valid votes, which excludes null and blank ballots, down from 52.8% last week. Bolsonaro gets 47.9%, up from 47.2%.
Considering total votes, Bolsonaro remains with 42% while Lula reached 48%, 1 percentage point more than in the previous week. All the changes fell within the survey’s margin of error.
Quaest is among major pollsters trying to somehow account for the impact of no-shows in the election. Large abstention rates tend to hurt Lula the most as low-income voters, who form a key part of the former president’s base of support, are more likely to not show up on election day.
“Abstention continues to be important and could reduce Lula’s advantage,” Felipe Nunes, the head of Quaest, wrote on Twitter.
Latin America’s biggest election this year is coming down to the wire as both candidates try to chip away at each other’s support in the final stretch. This month, Bolsonaro, 67, launched a slew of last-minute measures such as extending welfare handouts for half a million families and boosting assistance for taxi drivers in a bid to improve voters’ feelings about the economy.
That may be paying off, according to Thomas Traumann, a Rio de Janeiro-based political consultant and columnist.
“Pork-barrel politics is highly efficient in Brazilian elections and normally gives the incumbent extra points when vote comes,” Traumann said.
For his part, Lula, 76, has tried to capitalize on blunders made by the president and his allies over the past few days. He said Bolsonaro’s pro-gun stance and bellicose rhetoric contributed to a violent standoff this weekend between federal police and Roberto Jefferson, a onetime lawmaker and staunch supporter of the president.
A PoderData survey also published on Wednesday showed Lula’s lead widening slightly after the incident. The challenger would take 53% of valid votes, up a point from the week prior, while Bolsonaro would get 47%, down from 48%. The movements fell within the poll’s margin of error.
PoderData says Lula and Bolsonaro are in a statistical tie in the Southeast.
Adjusting Methodology
After underestimating Bolsonaro’s support in the first-round vote, some pollsters have tweaked their methodology and adjusted their representative samples in a bid to improve accuracy for the runoff.
The nation is bracing for the final televised presidential debate on Friday, though most voters have already made up their minds. According to Quaest, just 7% of respondents said they’d be willing to switch their vote.
Quaest interviewed 2,000 people between Oct. 23 and 25, and the poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 2 percentage points. PoderData spoke with 5,000 people in the same period and its poll has a margin of error of 1.5 percentage points.
--With assistance from Isadora Calumby
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