Bloomberg Línea — The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has published a new edition of its World Economic Outlook, dated July, and which gives improved Gross Domestic Product (GDP) projections for Latin America’s two main economies: Brazil and Mexico. However, estimates for Argentina, the region’s third-largest economy, deteriorated sharply.
At the regional level, the IMF expects Latin America’s real GDP to grow by 1.9% in 2023, an improvement compared to its April report, when it predicted a 1.6% advance.
Regarding 2024, the IMF forecasts that the region will see an economic expansion of 2.2%, maintaining the projections of the previous edition, published in April.
What can we expect for LatAm’s 3 biggest economies?
The IMF forecasts that:
- Brazil’s GDP growth will be 2.1% in 2023, when in the April report the lender forecast economic growth of 0.9%. Meanwhile, in 2024, the South American giant will likely see growth of 1.2%, a slightly lower figure, considering that the IMF expected it to be 1.5% in its April forecast.
- In Mexico, GDP growth is forecast to be 2.6% this year (the IMF had forecast 1.8% growth in April), and growth in 2024 is expected to be 1.5%, up 0.1% on its April estimate.
- Argentina’s forecast has deteriorated since April, and its GDP is forecast to shrink 2.5% in 2023. In April, the fund had forecast growth of 0.2%. In 2024, the country’s GDP is forecast to grow 2.8%.
The rest of the world
The world economy could grow 3% in 2023, according to the IMF, and another 3% in 2024, less than last year’s 3.5% but more than its previous forecast of 2.8%.
This year, emerging markets will likely grow 4% and developed markets 1.5%.
Regarding the two great economic powers of the planaet, the United States is expected to grow 1.8% in 2023 and 1% in 2024, while China is expected to grow 5.3% in 2023 and 5% in 2024.
