Buenos Aires — For more than 20 years, Argentina has been the main exporter of soybean flour, with the global supply of the product historically depending on three players, and of which Argentina has been the strongest. This year that story could change, however, with the beneficiary being neighboring Brazil.
“The relative stagnation that soybean production has had in Argentina is combined this year with a brutal drought,” explains the Rosario Stock Exchange (BCR), by projecting a crushed soybean production (grain processing) of 28 million tons, “the lowest volume since 2004″.
These phenomena explain part of the drop in $8 billion in revenues for the Argentine central bank this year, according to its estimates, and which also explain the forecast of a recession.
Brazil, the big beneficiary
The decline in soybean meal production in Argentina will have a winner: Brazil. According to the US Department of Agriculture, Brazil forecasts a record soybean production of 153 million tons for this season, 23.5 million tons above the previous year.
Thus, Brazil would recover the position of “largest global exporter of soybean meal”, and would relegate Argentina in that position for the first time in 26 years.
Soybean exports
According to the Rosario trade exchange, soybean flour and pellet exports are Argentina’s main export product, and which totaled $12 billion, or 25 million tons, in 2022.
