Sao Paulo — After a correction of approximately 5% for the leading Ibovespa (IBOV) index in August, a downward move driven by fiscal concerns and fresh interest rate hikes in the United States, Brazilian stocks are once again showing attractive valuations in September - although banks and brokers are advising caution.
“The sharp correction has pushed the premium for owning stocks to nearly two standard deviations above the historical average. Furthermore, we expect consolidated earnings to increase over the next 12 months, putting even more pressure on multiples,” wrote the research team at BTG Pactual in a report.
A Bloomberg Línea survey of the portfolios of 13 banks and brokerages shows that stocks from the financial, commodities, and domestic economy sectors are among the favorites for the month of September.
Similar to August, the “podium” of recommendations is occupied by Vale (VALE3), Itaú Unibanco (ITUB4), and PetroRio (PRIO3), in descending order of mentions. The list of recommended stocks also includes new names such as JBS (JBS3), BB Seguridade (BBSE3), Ecorodovias (ECOR3), and Vivara (VIVA3). Exiting the list are B3 (B3SA3), Grupo Soma (SOMA3), and Totvs (TOTS3).
For this month, the compiled portfolio consists of 15 stocks.
According to analysts Victor Penna and Wesley Bernabé from BB Investimentos, expectations regarding Brazil’s fiscal targets and the achievement - or not - of a primary budget surplus in 2024 will continue to set the tone for the market in Brazil in the first weeks of September.
The market is also expected to begin to assimilate the proposed budget for next year, especially expected revenue growth dynamics.
Although analysts see positive catalysts in the short term, such as the positive earnings revisions for some cyclical sectors, the BB analysts highlight that “anemic” Chinese activity and “palliative” government measures continue to be “one of the major obstacles to seeing the Ibovespa staying above 120,000 points” (the index closed at 117,893 points on Friday, September 1).
This portfolio compiled by Bloomberg Línea brings together recommendations from 13 brokerage firms or investment banks: Ágora, Ativa Investimentos, BB Investimentos, BTG Pactual, CM Capital, Empiricus Research, Genial Investimentos, Guide, Nova Futura, Órama, Santander Corretora, Warren, and XP Investimentos. It usually consists of ten stocks (or more in the case of a tie, as is the case this month).
These are stock brokers’ recommendations for September
Ágora Investimentos
- Carrefour (CRFB3)
- Copel (CPLE6)
- Ecorodovias (ECOR3)
- Eletrobras (ELET6)
- Itaúsa (ITSA4)
- JBS (JBSS3)
- Natura (NTCO3)
- Petrorio (PRIO3)
- Rede D’Or (RDOR3)
- Vale (VALE3)
Ativa Investimentos
- Itaú Unibanco (ITUB4)
- Vale (VALE3)
- Petrobras PN (PETR4)
- BB Seguridade (BBSE3)
- Hapvida (HAPV3)
- Bradesco (BBDC4)
- BTG Pactual (BPAC11)
- Suzano (SUZB3)
- Ultrapar (UGPA3)
- Copel (CPLE6)
- Cemig (CMIG4)
- PetroRio (PRIO3)
- Sabesp (SBSP3)
- Lojas Renner (LREN3)
- Totvs (TOTS3)
BB Investimentos
- ABC Brasil (ABCB4)
- B3 (B3SA3)
- Direcional (DIRR3)
- Grupo Mateus (GMAT3)
- Itaú Unibanco (ITUB4)
- Petrobras (PETR4)
- Rede D’Or (RDOR3)
- Localiza (RENT3
- Simpar (SIMH3)
- Vale (VALE3)
BTG Pactual
- Petrobras PN (PETR4)
- Mercado Livre (MELI34)
- Vale (VALE3)
- Itaú Unibanco (ITUB4)
- Eletrobras (ELET3)
- BB Seguridade (BBSE3)
- Rumo (RAIL3)
- Hapvida (HAPV3)
- Lojas Renner (LREN3)
- MRV (MRVE3)
CM Capital
- Bradespar (BRAP4)
- CSN Mineração (CMIN3)
- Itaúsa (ITSA4)
- JBS (JBSS3)
- Raia Drogasil (RADL3)
Empiricus Research
- Vale (VALE3)
- B3 (B3SA3)
- Direcional (DIRR3)
- Localiza (RENT3)
- Cyrela (CYRE3)
- Iguatemi (IGTI11)
- 3Tentos (TTEN3)
- Mercado Livre (MELI34)
- Hapvida (HAPV3)
- Grupo SBF (SBFG3)
Genial Investimentos
- Allos (ex-Aliansce Sonae) (ALSO3)
- Copasa (CSMG3)
- Ecorodovias (ECOR3)
- Engie (EGIE3)
- Hidrovias (HBSA3)
- PetroRio (PRIO3)
- Porto Seguro (PSSA3)
- Smartfit (SMFT3)
- Vale (VALE3)
- WEG (WEGE3)
Guide Investimentos
- Allos (ex-Aliansce Sonae) (ALSO3)
- Banco do Brasil (BBAS3)
- Cruzeiro do Sul Educacional (CSED3)
- Ecorodovias (ECOR3)
- JBS (JBSS3)
- Rede D’Or (RDOR3)
- Simpar (SIMH3)
- São Martinho (SMTO3)
- Vale (VALE3)
- Vivara (VIVA3)
Nova Futura Investimentos
- BB Seguridade (BBSE3)
- Isa Cteep (TRPL4)
- Itaú Unibanco (ITUB4)
- JBS (JBSS3)
- PetroRio (PRIO3)
- São Martinho (SMTO3)
- Simpar (SIMH3)
- Suzano (SUZB3)
- Vale (VALE3)
- Vivo (VIVT3)
Órama Investimentos
- Rede D’Or (RDOR3)
- BTG Pactual (BPAC11)
- Vale (VALE3)
- Vivara (VIVA3)
- Minerva (BEEF3)
Santander Corretora
- Banco do Brasil (BBAS3)
- Cyrela (CYRE3)
- Equatorial (EQTL3)
- Itaú Unibanco (ITUB4)
- Localiza (RENT3)
- Multiplan (MULT3)
- Petrobras ON (PETR3)
- Rumo (RAIL3)
- Totvs (TOTS3)
- Vale (VALE3)
- Vivara (VIVA3)
Warren
- Copel (CPLE6)
- WEG (WEGE3)
- Vamos (VAMO3)
- Engie (EGIE3)
- Bradesco (BBDC4)
- PetroRio (PRIO3)
- Itaú Unibanco (ITUB4)
- Arezzo (ARZZ3)
- Grupo Soma (SOMA3)
- Irani (RANI3)
- Banco ABC Brasil (ABCB4)
- Armac (ARML3)
- Porto Seguro (PSSA3)
- BR Partners (BRBI11)
- Suzano (SUZB3)
XP Investimentos*
- Petrobras PN (PETR4)
- Assaí (ASAI3)
- Itaú Unibanco (ITUB4)
- Grupo Soma (SOMA3)
*Partial disclosure of the portfolio at XP’s request.