Bloomberg — Mexico’s Claudia Sheinbaum has an eleven point lead over second-place contender Marcelo Ebrard ahead of the ruling party’s selection of its candidate for the 2024 presidential election, according to a poll of potential voters by Citigroup Inc.
Sheinbaum is preferred by 29% of voters, above the 18% who say they would choose former Foreign Affairs Minister Ebrard, signaling a growing gap between the two leading politicians in the race. The recent Mexico City mayor is widely perceived as President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador’s “favorite contender,” according to Citi analysts Ernesto Revilla and Nydia Iglesias.
Lopez Obrador’s party remains in a comfortable position to win next year’s vote, with 57% of voters surveyed by Citi saying they would support the Morena party and its allies, compared to 36% for the opposition parties, according to the poll. The party has said that it will unveil the details of its selection process closer to the date, but it has vowed that its choice will depend on voters’ preference.
In a lineup where smaller party Movimiento Ciudadano also ran its own candidate, Sheinbaum would come far ahead of the most favored candidate from the opposition coalition, senator Xochitl Galvez, and the third nominee. In that scenario, 40% of people say they would vote for Sheinbaum and another 22% said they would favor Galvez, the poll found.
- The poll consisted of 2,497 interviews at respondents’ homes between July 17 and August 5. Its margin of error is plus or minus 2.0%
- The other contenders for the Morena nomination are far behind Sheinbaum and Ebrard, with former Interior Minister Adan Augusto Lopez favored by 7% of voters and former Senate majority leader Ricardo Monreal by 2%
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