Bloomberg — A fresh round of Brazil polls show that President Jair Bolsonaro’s cash subsidies for the poor, a flood of campaign ads and a bad-tempered debate failed to sway voters weeks before general elections.
Leftist challenger Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, maintained a large lead in the latest Ipespe poll released Wednesday, with 43% of voting intention in the first-round compared to Bolsonaro’s 35%. The numbers were statistically unchanged from July.
PoderData found Bolsonaro trailing by eight percentage points, with no significant change since the last measure taken two weeks ago.
The polls show the initial voter reaction after candidates squared off in their first televised debate three days ago. For nearly three hours, they traded barbs over corruption accusations and how to better steer Latin America’s largest economy. Separately, they began airing TV and radio spots the day prior. Brazil holds its presidential election on Oct. 2.
Government Approval
Former president Lula has been favored to win the race since the Supreme Court tossed out corruption convictions against him last year. Bolsonaro has been dogged by high prices of food and fuel, as well as anger over his hands-off approach to the pandemic that contributed to the deaths over 600,000 Brazilians.
Although Bolsonaro didn’t narrow the gap with his rival, feelings about the current administration did improve slightly after the passage of an $8 billion relief package meant to cushion the effects of inflation and stimulate growth: 46% of respondents view the government as “bad/terrible,” down from 49%, while those who see it as “great/good” jumped to 35% from 31%, Ipespe found.
Sunday’s debate drew a record audience with millions of viewers tuning in on television and YouTube. And it gave the stage to four long-shot candidates, who have been so far overshadowed by Brazil’s two largest and most polarizing political personalties.
Few concrete proposals were discussed as the front-runners were put on the defensive for much of the evening. Challengers piled on Bolsonaro over his treatment of women after he snapped at a female journalist. Lula stumbled from claims that graft ran rampant under his watch at state-oil company Petroleo Brasileiro SA.
A separate survey by Quaest released Wednesday found support for candidates other than the current and the former president climbing prior to the debate, but Lula holding a comfortable lead.
The Ipespe poll, commissioned by XP Inc, interviewed 2,000 people across Brazil between August 26 and 29. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 2 percentage points.
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